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Online Blackjack OddsOnline Blackjack Probability
The goal of this page is to explain online blackjack probability and odds, and to describe the rules variations which affect your odds. The House Edge in Online Blackjack
Blackjack generally has a house edge of between 0.5% and 1% if you play with perfect basic strategy. If you play badly, the house edge goes up to between 2% and 4%. This means that for every $100 you bet, the casino plans for you to lose between 50 cents and $1 if you're a basic strategy player, and between $2 and $4 if not. Expected Value in Online BlackjackA related concept to the house edge is "expected value". The expected value of a bet is the amount you can mathematically expect to win or lose on a bet. If the house has an edge of 1%, and you're betting $100, the expected value on that bet is -$1. Bets on almost all casino games have a negative expected value. Card counting can make blackjack into a positive expectation game, but you can't count cards in online blackjack. The deck gets shuffled after every deal. Standard Deviation in Online BlackjackStandard deviation is the amount that you deviate from the statistical norm in a series of bets. For example, if you flip a coin 100 times, the mathematical expectation is to land on heads 50 times and on tails 50 times. But in reality, your results will almost surely vary. The amount that your results vary is called the standard deviation. Standard deviation is why casino players sometimes win at casino games. No one would play casino games if they always lost the amount of the house edge. Getting lucky at the tables or the slots is just a matter of standard deviation. Factors Affecting Online Blackjack OddsBlackjack, online and traditional blackjack, has a large number of rules variations which can affect the odds and probability in a negative or positive way. We list and briefly explain which variations affect the odds in both a positive and a negative way. How the Number of Decks Affects Online Blackjack OddsYou've probably read that a single deck blackjack game is better than a multiple deck blackjack game. Single deck blackjack is hard to find in traditional casinos, but online casinos, with their lower overhead, can offer single deck blackjack and still make a handsome profit. The difference between an eight deck blackjack game and a single deck blackjack game, in terms of house edge, is about 0.5%. Whether or Not the Dealer Hits a Soft 17 and How that Affect Online Blackjack OddsIt's better for the player if the dealer stands on a soft 17. If the dealer hits a soft 17, that adds about 0.2% to the house edge for the game. Doubling After Splitting and How It Affects Online Blackjack OddsThe player benefits from being able to double after splitting. In most traditional casinos, players are not allowed to double after splitting, but some online blackjack games allow doubling after splitting. Disallowing doubling after splitting adds about 0.15% to the house edge. What Cards Can a Player Double OnA generous blackjack game allows a player to double on any total, but most blackjack games restrict doubling to certain hands. Casinos which limit doubling to hands totaling 9-11 increase the house edge by about 0.1%, and by restricting doubling to just 10 or 11, they increase the house edge by another 0.1%. Splitting Hands and Its Affect on the OddsSome casinos only allow you to split your initial hand, while others allow you to keep splitting until you have three or four hands in play. Being able to resplit after splitting adds about 0.04% to the player. Casinos also have rules about whether or not aces can be resplit, and whether or not the hand can take a hit after splitting. (This is important because of the chances of getting a blackjack.) Being able to hit a split ace after splitting subtracts 0.07% from the house edge. Late Surrender AllowedIf late surrender is allowed, then the house edge is reduced by about 0.08%. The Difference Between 3/2 Blackjack and 6/5 BlackjackThe house edge on a game where blackjack pays 6 to 5 instead of 3 to 2 increases by a whopping 1.3%. I don't know of any online casinos which offer such a lousy game, but many traditional casinos do. Refuse to play in such a game. If you want to play in a game where the odds are that bad, you can play something easier and more fun than blackjack. More Blackjack Articles:
For more information on the same subject, visit Online Blackjack Odds. Other similar articles that might interest you related to other casino games include: craps odds from Craps Hero and video poker odds from Video Poker 365. |
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The
first concept to understand when looking at the subject of
online blackjack probability or online blackjack odds is the
concept of the "house edge". The simplest explanation of the
house edge is that it's the average amount won by the casino for
each bet made by the player. The house edge is usually expressed
as a percentage. It's important to understand that the house
edge isn't a consistent number; it's a mathematical average that
assumes a large number of wagers. Anything can happen in the
short term. (That's called standard deviation.)